The End of an Era

March 2022 Imperfect Union

I thought through several topics for this month’s newsletter, but it seemed impossible to write about anything other than the situation in Ukraine. There is no doubt that we are living through a historic moment, which is uncomfortable as a historian whose job it is to write about historic moments. Granted, my discomfort is nothing compared to people living in a war zone, but I am sure that we’d all like to know how this catastrophe is going to end.

And I have no idea.

I am not a military expert, nor am I a historian of Russia, the Soviet Union, or Ukraine. So, I’ve remained pretty quiet online about the war. If I want my expertise to be taken seriously, and I want the country to respect expertise, then I must know when to close my mouth and learn. I’ve been reading and listening to a lot of experts[1] of this subject and the general consensus seems to be that they don’t know how this crisis is going to end either. Which I guess is a tiny bit comforting that I’m not missing anything, but also terrifying because no one really sees a way out with the current leaders in Russia. Or at least not one we can stomach.

Naturally, one of the ways I relate to our current events is by making historic parallels. One parallel is the lead up to World War I. Tensions had been brewing between European nations for decades and one gun shot was the spark that culminated in the Great War. The last few decades have felt a bit like we are frogs simmering in hot water. In retrospect, we can see the aggressions and various attacks by Putin (Crimea, Georgia, assassination of political enemies on western soil, meddling in elections, etc.) and how they’ve led to this moment.

World War II offers several other parallels. Western appeasement in the face of Nazi remilitarization of the Rhineland, the seizure of Austria, and the incorporation of the Sudetenland back into Germany only emboldened Adolf Hitler to take more aggressive action. The invasion of Poland in September 1939 feels similar as well. A giant, well-armed nation invading its smaller, less militarily advanced (ish) neighbor.

As I was reading about heroic stories of Ukrainian resistance, I also thought of the Blitz. After the fall of France in June 1940, Great Britain stood alone in the fight against Nazi Germany until the Soviet Union joined the fight in June 1941, and the US followed in December 1941. From September 7, 1940 to May 11, 1941, the Luftwaffe (the German air force) dropped thousands of bombs on the biggest cities in Britain. The goal had been to subdue the British into submission before German forces invaded England. The Royal Air Force fought back valiantly and destroyed over 600 German aircraft. Civilians also waged a heroic war to prevent the spread of fire and further destruction, as well as continue with their daily lives. The David and Goliath element feels similar to what we are seeing now.

These parallels are imperfect of course, but they do indicate that we are starting a new era in world history. These moments were huge, paradigm shifting events that left behind a different world than the one that existed when the wars started. The war in Ukraine feels similar. The war is very much the end of the post-World War II order.

Now, I should say, I know that there have been wars in the last 80 years. Obviously. The US has been involved or caused many of them. There have been dire refugee crises and untold human suffering. We shouldn’t care about a European life more than a Middle Eastern or African one, but it would be foolish to deny the public response is different this time around. Without a doubt, racial and religious biases play a role in this change, but I think public awareness also reflects a couple of important truths about the current global order.

Russia is an enemy we know well. Literally all you need to do is watch the old James Bond movies—it’s impossible to miss the evil empire trope. Of course, this enemy was called the Soviets for much of the rivalry, and there are important differences between the USSR and Russia today. But the concept remains. The US v. Russia quite literally shaped the Cold War and colored almost every foreign policy choice for decades. Most of the people in power came of age during this era, both in Russia and in the US. Every single biographical sketch of Putin starts with his former career as a KGB officer.

This identity of democracy v. communism, west v. east, US. v. Soviet was also an essential part of our domestic political situation. For much of the 20th century, the Republican Party’s primary foreign policy platform was strong national defense to counter the Soviet Union.

This war also feels pretty easy to understand in a global context. It is a war between democracy and autocracy. What happens in Ukraine won’t stay in Ukraine. I saw this tweet and it really gets to the heart of the matter:

“The idea that Europe can be at peace if Russia prevails in Ukraine is absurd. The idea the US can have a China policy if Russia wins is laughable. This is a fight for our freedom, not just Ukraine’s. Russia must fail. The sooner we realise that the better.”

That is true on a global scale, as well a domestic one. We can’t afford to look away. Should we ever look away? Of course not, but we do. That just can’t happen. All of which is to say that if you are scared, if you are tired, if you are having trouble managing the challenging dichotomy between world events and your daily life, that’s ok. You aren’t alone.